INSIDE THIS POST
A season runs twenty-six weeks, and most of the decisions that matter about it are made in the second half. We wanted to know how much of the ending was already knowable earlier, so we read back three seasons of sales and asked what the first nine weeks had said.
What we looked at
For each style, we took cumulative sell-through at the end of week nine and set it against where the style actually finished. We kept the comparison simple: where it stood against its plan, how deep the stock still was, and whether it was selling at full price.
What week nine says
The styles that finished well and the styles that finished badly had already separated by week nine. The ones that missed were under the curve, still holding deep stock, and often still at full price. None of this was hidden. It was in the weekly report, a few tabs in, and nobody had a reason to look there before the markdown meeting.
What changes
Knowing the ending a third of the way in is only useful if someone acts on it. The finding is less about forecasting than about timing: the signal is early enough to move a markdown, a reorder or a transfer while it still matters, if it reaches the person who can decide.